Robinhood Wallet now routes Stock Token swaps through Arcus, a dYdX-team exchange reporting more than $5 billion of volume since its July 1 launch. That total also counts perpetuals still in beta, so the spot demand Robinhood is connecting to is smaller than the headline figure, by an amount nobody has published.
Reality
- Evidence30
- Adoption35
- Hype gap+35
- Incentives75
- Confidence40
Robinhood's Johann Kerbrat says its offshore stock-token turnover is already high enough to hit some caps in the SEC's September 17 Innovation Exemption. The larger obstacle is the product itself, a Jersey-issued debt note the order excludes, so a US version must first be rebuilt to carry full shareholder rights.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption25
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives60
- Confidence45
Vlad Tenev says an issuer's authority reaches the privileges attached to the shares it issues and no further. Robinhood keeps its AMC tokens on sale while Adam Aron calls them unauthorized and threatens to bring in the SEC.
Reality
- Evidence48
- Adoption24
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives78
- Confidence62
Robinhood's Stock Tokens are Jersey-issued debt that pays a share's price and none of its rights, which is why its chief legal officer, an SEC commissioner until 2015, says it will not stop, and why AMC's route to Washington looks narrow.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption35
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives78
- Confidence55
Adam Aron wants trading stopped and has AMC's securities lawyers on it, but the obligor on the instrument is Robinhood Assets (Jersey) Limited, so the holder's contract was never with AMC and the demand letter has no counterparty to name.
Reality
- Evidence64
- Adoption38
- Hype gap+32
- Incentives78
- Confidence58
More than 99% of Robinhood Chain's volume is memecoin trading, while tokenized equities on it sat at $10.68 million in July. That gap is the number to watch.
Reality
- Evidence52
- Adoption63
- Hype gap+40
- Incentives72
- Confidence47