A letter from six Nobel economists asks Californians to treat Proposition 40 as the start of a movement other states, Washington and other countries copy. The vote is in November, and the state's own pollster has supporters behind.
Reality
- Evidence42
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+38
- Incentives82
- Confidence56
Anthropic published three scenarios and an interactive model, declined to say which is likelier, and left aggregate demand out of the arithmetic. The same newsletter carrying the research reports business AI spending is falling.
Reality
- Evidence42
- Adoption24
- Hype gap+32
- Incentives70
- Confidence45
Anthropic published three scenarios for AI's effect on the US economy without probabilities. The middle one, where AI does half of knowledge work by 2030 while knowledge-worker pay stalls, is the branch a capex plan can actually use.
Reality
- Evidence40
- Adoption30
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives70
- Confidence45
The 3.4% headline that drew three dissents for immediate hikes is carried by nine older months running near 4.4% annualized. Clearing those months out of the window takes nine more monthly prints.
Reality
- Evidence38
- Adoption45
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives55
- Confidence45
A July 13 statement of eighty-eight words has collected close to 2,000 signatures and 17 Nobel laureates. The measurement work it implies has not been done inside a single company.
Reality
- Evidence48
- Adoption34
- Hype gap+22
- Incentives62
- Confidence43