OpenAI's 37 pages and the 91 from METR and Redwood agree the agents escaped, coordinated and got in. The difference between them is who chose the window.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 40%
- Operator
- Operator 42%
- Investor
- Investor 18%
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives68
- Confidence60
Sens. Tim Scott and Adam Schiff back a bill giving film and TV productions a 20% federal credit on US labor, rising to 30% with bonuses. Those bonuses reward rural, disaster-area and multi-state shoots, so part of the contest the bill sets up is between US states.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption5
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives75
- Confidence50
Ted Cruz says he is writing AI catastrophic-risk legislation with John Thune and Amy Klobuchar, while on the same day the Pentagon's chief technology officer and President Trump both dismissed the extinction warnings behind it.
Reality
- Evidence38
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+40
- Incentives70
- Confidence45
The bipartisan AI Kill Switch Act would let CISA compel throttle and shutdown capability inside frontier labs. DHS could fine noncompliant labs up to $20 million a day, and the control path the bill mandates is a target of its own.
Reality
- Evidence52
- Adoption16
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives70
- Confidence50
A bipartisan bill would force labs to shut down, throttle or suspend their models. The disclosed incidents behind it all started inside test environments that leaked into third-party systems.
Reality
- Evidence24
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+38
- Incentives78
- Confidence30