Saudi Arabia built the East-West pipeline so its crude could reach the Red Sea without entering Iranian waters. Riyadh says the drones that hit it in early September flew from an Iraqi province on the Iranian border.
Reality
- Evidence24
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives50
- Confidence22
The East-West pipeline had been carrying more than double the Red Sea export volume it moved before the Iran war, and on Friday Saudi Arabia stopped it. Riyadh says it will not retaliate, and Trump says the Houthis called.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption74
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives68
- Confidence54
Iranian loadings averaged 220,000 to 260,000 barrels a day in August, and the subtraction from world supply comes to about 1.6m bpd. The report carrying those figures leaves out the crude price and the name of the tracking provider.
Reality
- Evidence28
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+14
- Incentives45
- Confidence34
Two dollars under Oman/Dubai is a strange price for a corridor still running below normal. The September 6 OPEC+ meeting will show whether Riyadh was accommodating weak shipping or buying Asian share ahead of a 2027 capacity review.
Reality
- Evidence34
- Adoption58
- Hype gap+14
- Incentives45
- Confidence41
Erdogan wants the strait reopened and has signed a 750,000 b/d pipeline deal in case it isn't. Tehran's condition is war damages, which is a budget question, not a military one.
Reality
- Evidence28
- Adoption22
- Hype gap+24
- Incentives68
- Confidence30