Ahead of Tuesday's cloture vote the White House is answering bank lobbyists with a scenario tool, while Fairshake's $30 million to Democrats is already spent and Republicans including John Cornyn weigh a no.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+18
- Incentives82
- Confidence55
The American Bankers Association warns that as much as $6.6 trillion of transactional deposits is exposed to stablecoin migration. That pool is about 2.6 times what every US bank under $10 billion holds in total, and small-bank deposits grew anyway.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption25
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives65
- Confidence48
In Foreign Affairs, the former director of Biden's National Economic Council argues Washington has an elaborate apparatus for refusing inbound capital and almost no route to approving it. The two federal measures it names are still proposals.
Reality
- Evidence38
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+32
- Incentives76
- Confidence48
Jared Bernstein, who chaired Biden's Council of Economic Advisers, calls the $40 trillion figure a distraction, and names the two inputs that changed his mind: the price of carrying the debt, and Congress.
Reality
- Evidence52
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+14
- Incentives62
- Confidence55
A new Office of Trade and Manufacturing Policy report tiers 40 jurisdictions by transshipment risk. Its headline figure is 3.4 to 8.9 times what the White House's own economists estimate.
Reality
- Evidence42
- Adoption24
- Hype gap+45
- Incentives76
- Confidence46