Microsoft says Russia's FSB-linked Star Blizzard sent fake event invitations to more than 100 organizations since January 2026. The lures pose as Chatham House and Atlantic Council events and carry a new Python backdoor, CosmicPulse, aimed at people working on Ukraine.
Reality
- Evidence60
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives
- Insufficient
- Confidence62
The Italian shipbuilder is taking majority stakes in four underwater technology companies. The governments and alliances that would buy seabed monitoring are still exploring how to do it.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption25
- Hype gap+35
- Incentives70
- Confidence45
Riyadh's overland line to the Red Sea absorbed February's Hormuz closure. With it down since Friday and the Houthis holding Mokha, Saudi crude reaching Asia is running near a fifth of June's rate, on Kpler's figures.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption65
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives60
- Confidence50
The two probabilities cited most often sit five times apart, and Chatham House expects global coordination only once a crisis has happened. Until then, the guardrails are self-written.
Reality
- Evidence21
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+58
- Incentives55
- Confidence32
A report says British-supplied one-way attack drones, including BAE Systems' Nyan, have hit Russian refineries and bases since early 2026. Neither government has confirmed it.
Reality
- Evidence12
- Adoption
- Insufficient
- Hype gap+62
- Incentives74
- Confidence24