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1,081 sessions of SPX open-interest change put a floor on how much of each day's book is newly created, and leave an OI-based 0DTE gamma estimate covering about an eighth of the flow.
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Two open-interest snapshots and one volume field, per contract, per session. Divide the absolute change in open interest by the day's volume and you get a floor on how one-sided that contract's trading was, because opens and closes inside the same contract net out before they reach an OI print [3]. Three hundred lots opened and three hundred closed reports zero [12]. Every one-sidedness number in the study is therefore understated by construction, and the large ones survive the handicap: a median contract-day floor of 0.50, with 22% of contract-days above 0.9 [7].
The bucket split is where the mechanism shows. A day's trading in a contract 22 or more days out is at least 58% one-sided, against 42% at one to five days [6]. The far book is inventory and the near book is turnover, so an open-interest gamma map is most faithful exactly where per-contract gamma is thinnest.
Now the internal cross-check. If 44% of tomorrow's opening 0DTE open interest was created today [8], and today's volume in those same 1DTE contracts is 1.06 times that opening open interest [9], then newly created open interest is about 41.5% of the volume that produced it [15]. That sits a little above the whole-book net figure, and it should: gross opens are clipped at zero, net change is not, and medians of ratios do not divide cleanly. Call it a sanity check rather than a second result.
Coverage is the part that bites. Nearly eight turns of opening open interest on the median 2026 0DTE session [10] means the morning's print accounts for roughly 12.5% of that day's activity in those contracts, leaving about 87% of it outside [17]. The author states the same thing as an eighth [11]. Published dealer-gamma figures start from yesterday's outstanding contracts multiplied by a convention about who holds which side [0], so the convention dispute is an argument about the 12.5%.
The residual is also growing. Going from 40% in 2024 to 52% in 2026 is 12 points, a 30% relative rise across three annual readings [16]. A method resting on the morning's open interest does not have to change to get worse.
The stated limits are worth keeping in front of the numbers. Nothing here signs a trade, the OI change shows that positions moved rather than who moved them, and it is one archive from one vendor's end-of-day chain [12]. Contracts expiring on the day have no next-session open interest and leave the statistics entirely, and 4.1% of rows carrying 3.8% of volume showed an absolute OI change larger than volume, which cannot happen and is attributed to snapshot timing; those were dropped [4]. Half the contract-days in the window never traded: 4.3 million of 8.6 million had volume [14]. Thin per contract, fat per session, which is the right shape for a claim about sessions.
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Ranked by verification strength, evidence, and original report placement.
Most published dealer-gamma numbers are built from open interest: yesterday's outstanding contracts multiplied by a convention about who holds which side, and whether that convention is right is a separate question.
Sample: SPX and SPXW, 2022-04-14 to 2026-08-14, 1,081 trading days, every expiry within about a month (0DTE plus the 21 nearest).
The sample covers 8.6 million contract-days, of which 4.3 million had volume.
Per contract (expiry, strike, right) and session D, OI change is next session's opening open interest minus this session's; the absolute OI change divided by the day's volume is a lower bound on how one-sided that day's trading was, where 1.0 means every lot opened or every lot closed and 0 means opens and closes cancelled.
Contracts expiring on D have no next-day open interest and drop out of the OI change statistics; 4.1% of rows (3.8% of volume) show absolute OI change greater than volume, which is impossible and attributed to OI snapshot timing, and are excluded.
Across the whole book, net OI change is 39.9% of the day's volume on the median session (IQR 36.2 to 44.0%), and is positive in every year and every expiry bucket.
Evidence-backed comparisons of source perspectives and observed adoption signals. Read the methodology
Which Builder, Operator, and Investor concerns the observed source mix emphasized—not a truth score.
Evidence, demonstrated adoption, hype gap, incentives, and confidence are assessed independently, each on its own current evidence. How these are measured.
Well-specified single-source measurement, unreplicated
The claims come with an unusually complete method: named sample (SPX/SPXW, 1,081 sessions, 8.6m contract-days), an explicit metric definition, disclosed exclusions with their volume share, year-by-year breakdowns, and code sufficient to reproduce every figure. That is strong internal evidence. It is capped by provenance: one self-published post, one vendor's end-of-day chain, no independent replication, no intraday data to convert the lower bounds into actual one-sidedness.
No adoption evidence in supplied sources
The single source is a research write-up. It contains no release, deployment, usage disclosure, pricing or licensing event, and no indication that any desk, product or third party has taken up the measurement. Nothing in the supplied material supports an adoption score, and none may be inferred.
Slightly understated relative to its own findings
The framing is conservative against the data it presents: the headline is a coverage statistic, the author explicitly declines to argue the dealer-gamma convention's sign, labels the one-sidedness figures lower bounds, and disclaims signal or advice. A finding that an OI-based 0DTE gamma estimate sees roughly an eighth of same-day flow could be sold much harder than it is here. The gap is only mildly negative because the post still promotes the author's own research destination and rests on a single archive, which argues against reading it as fully de-risked.
Vendor-authored research with a promotional endpoint
The post is a short version of research hosted at gex.live/research and closes by pointing readers back there, including a teaser about how often dealer-gamma levels hold. The author therefore has a commercial interest in casting doubt on generic open-interest-based gamma estimates while marketing their own analytics. The disclosure is implicit rather than stated, though the method transparency and self-imposed limits partially offset the incentive.
Moderate: internally rigorous, externally unverified
Confidence is limited by structure, not by sloppiness. Every figure traces to one publisher and one vendor archive with no corroboration, and adoption is entirely unevidenced, so no triangulation is possible. Against that, the statistics are specific, consistently reported across years and expiry buckets, arithmetically self-consistent, and reproducible in principle from widely available data.
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1 article · August 22, 2026